CPI报告后华尔街改写利率剧本，现预计美联储年内降息“2.5次”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent U.S. inflation data has led traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates more than twice by 2026, which has driven up U.S. Treasury prices [1] - The January CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%, and down 0.3 percentage points from 2.7% in December 2025, marking the lowest level since June of the previous year [1] - Traders are now expecting a cumulative rate cut of approximately 63 basis points by the end of the year, indicating a likelihood of two to three rate cuts, with a strong possibility of initiating cuts before the July meeting [1] Group 2 - The recent auction of newly issued 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds saw historically strong demand, reflecting investor confidence that yields will not rise again despite geopolitical tensions and significant fiscal deficits [2] - The positive reaction to the inflation data is somewhat tempered by the ongoing improvement in the labor market, which reduces the necessity for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - There is an indication that recent market movements may be more influenced by a shift in risk sentiment rather than the economic data itself [2]