华尔街怎么看1月CPI?通胀担忧暂歇，今年三次降息几率升至五成

Core Insights - The U.S. inflation data showed a mild increase, with the core CPI year-on-year growth falling to its lowest level in nearly five years, indicating a continued easing of price pressures. This unexpected cooling of inflation has boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with traders raising the probability of three rate cuts to 50% [1][4] Inflation Data Summary - The January CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since May of the previous year, down from 2.7% in December and below the market expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth since March 2021 [1][4] - The CPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, the smallest increase since July of the previous year, and below the expected 0.3%. Energy prices were a major drag, with the overall energy index falling by 1.5% and gasoline prices down by 3.2% [5][7] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Housing costs rose by only 0.2% month-on-month, the smallest increase since September, with year-on-year growth slowing to 3%. Prices for used cars and trucks fell by 1.8%, the largest drop in two years. Food price increases were the smallest since July 2025, with beef and veal prices down by 0.4% and egg prices plummeting by 7% [7][8] - Some categories showed signs of tariff impacts, with clothing prices up by 0.3%, video and audio products up by 2.2%, and airfares soaring by 6.5%, the largest increase since mid-2022 [7][8] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI data release, U.S. stock futures rose, U.S. Treasury prices increased, and yields fell. The two-year Treasury yield dropped by 6 basis points to 3.40%, the lowest level in nearly two months [4][9] - Market expectations for total rate cuts this year increased from 58 basis points to 63 basis points, indicating a 50% chance of three rate cuts by the end of the year. The probability of a rate cut in April is estimated at 30%, while the likelihood for June exceeds 80% [4][9] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the January inflation report alleviates concerns about sustained inflation due to high tariffs from the previous administration. The lower overall price increases are seen as a positive signal for the economy, despite some persistent price pressures in certain categories [8][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious balance between curbing inflation and protecting the labor market, with some economists predicting two rate cuts this year, the next likely in June [8][9]