Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-14 00:09Core Viewpoint - Copper is becoming a critical resource for mining companies, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence, power grids, and renewable energy, leading to increased competition among major mining firms for strategic positioning in copper production [1]. Group 1: Major Mining Companies' Performance - BHP, the world's largest copper mining company, reported a copper production of 2.014 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.9%. The company has raised its copper production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year to a range of 1.9 million to 2 million tons [2]. - Vale achieved a copper production of 382,400 tons in 2025, marking a 9.8% year-on-year increase, the highest level since 2018. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a production of 108,100 tons, a 6% increase, attributed to strong performance from its Salobo and Sossego operations [5][6]. - Rio Tinto's copper production reached 883,000 tons in 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year, exceeding its guidance of 860,000 to 875,000 tons [7]. Group 2: Strategic Investments and Future Plans - BHP is making a strategic investment in the Vicuña project in Argentina, with plans to invest up to $800 million in two significant copper mining projects, which are expected to be among the most important copper development projects in history [5]. - Vale aims to become a copper producer with an annual output of 1 million tons, with plans to double its copper production to around 700,000 tons by 2035 [7]. - Fortescue is actively pursuing copper production, having signed a binding agreement to acquire a 64% stake in Alta Copper, which aligns with its strategic focus on key minerals [8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Projections - Since 2025, copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price surpassing $14,500 per ton, reaching a historical high [9]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will stabilize in 2026, with an average price of $11,400 per ton, while also noting a potential decrease in inventory levels outside the U.S. by approximately 450,000 tons [9]. - S&P forecasts that global copper demand will increase by 50% from 28 million tons at the end of 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040, while supply is expected to lag, potentially leading to a 10 million ton shortfall by 2040 [10].