These Stocks Thrived in the 2008 Financial Crisis, but Here's Why They Won't Save Investors Again

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions differ from those in 2008, suggesting that defensive stocks like Walmart and McDonald's may not perform as well in a potential market downturn as they did during the last financial crisis [2]. Group 1: Walmart's Performance and Valuation - Walmart has achieved a market cap of $1 trillion, a significant milestone primarily seen in tech companies [3]. - Over the past five years, Walmart's stock has increased by over 170%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's return of 75% [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has expanded from 16.5 times earnings in 2008 to 45 times earnings today, indicating a substantial increase in valuation [4]. - This high valuation is typically associated with high-growth tech stocks rather than retail companies, which generally operate with lower margins [5]. Group 2: Dividend and Competitive Position - Walmart's dividend yield has decreased to 0.7%, the lowest since 2003, and below its 10-year average of 1.8% [5]. - In contrast, competitor Target trades at a lower valuation of 14 times forward earnings and offers a more attractive dividend yield of 3.9% [5]. - During economic downturns, consumers may shift spending to Walmart, but high earnings multiples like P/E ratios are likely to contract, leaving Walmart with little margin of safety [6].