华商基金张永志：在股债之间寻找"确定性锚点"

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a structural trend driven by technological advancements and policy expectations, while the bond market is undergoing a range-bound fluctuation, testing investors' decision-making abilities. The "fixed income +" strategy is increasingly favored by investors as a tool to navigate through cycles [1][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - In early 2026, the A-share market continues to show structural trends influenced by technology and policy expectations [1][8]. - The bond market is characterized by a range-bound fluctuation, with a "top" and "bottom" scenario, challenging investors' decision-making [1][8]. - The "fixed income +" strategy is gaining traction among investors for its ability to provide both offensive and defensive opportunities [1][8]. Group 2: Insights from Zhang Yongzhi - Zhang Yongzhi, General Manager of the Multi-Asset Investment Department at Huashang Fund, has nearly 20 years of experience in the securities industry, focusing on macro asset allocation and the development of "fixed income +" products [3][11]. - His investment style emphasizes a balanced approach, aiming for long-term sustainable returns while capturing certain opportunities in equity investments based on valuation [3][11]. Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - In Q4 2025, the bond market showed stable overall performance, with a steepening yield curve. Short-term bonds benefited from a loose funding environment, while medium to long-term bonds faced adjustments due to rising inflation expectations [4][12]. - The convertible bond market exhibited characteristics of both bond market liquidity and equity market risk appetite, with performance influenced by underlying stocks, particularly in growth sectors driven by industrial policies [4][12]. Group 4: Equity Market Analysis - The equity market is experiencing an upward shift in its oscillation center, with significant trading volume during periods of favorable policies. The market is characterized by a "high-low" process, driven by policy support and a search for sectors with marginal improvements in fundamentals [5][12]. - Strong performance continues in technology sectors, while defensive and high-dividend sectors like coal and banking are gaining attention in the current market environment [5][12]. Group 5: 2026 Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, despite the recent rise in A-shares, the "stock-bond value ratio" indicates that equity prices still hold investment value, providing a rationale for medium to long-term capital allocation to equity assets [5][13]. - The investment philosophy emphasizes independent thinking and a long-term perspective, aiming to create stable returns for investors through flexible asset allocation and strict credit risk control [5][14].