华商基金张永志：以宏观视野穿越市场迷雾 在适度宽松政策周期中捕捉确定性机会

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a structural trend influenced by technological waves and policy expectations, while the bond market is testing investors' decision-making abilities in a fluctuating environment [1] - The "fixed income +" strategy is becoming a preferred tool for many investors to navigate through cycles, characterized by its ability to both seize opportunities and mitigate risks [1] - Zhang Yongzhi, a seasoned expert with nearly 20 years of experience in the "fixed income +" field, emphasizes a macro perspective on asset allocation to pursue long-term sustainable returns [1][3] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the bond market showed stable overall performance, with a steepening yield curve; short-term bonds benefited from a loose funding environment, while medium to long-term bonds faced adjustments due to rising inflation expectations [2] - The convertible bond market exhibited characteristics of high-priced stocks, with performance influenced by both the liquidity environment of the bond market and the risk appetite of the stock market [2] - The equity market is characterized by an upward oscillation, with significant trading volume during periods of favorable policies; sectors such as technology and cyclical stocks are highlighted for their defensive and allocation value [3] Group 3 - Despite the recent rise in A-shares, the "stock-bond value ratio" indicates that the stock market still holds allocation value, providing a rationale for long-term capital to invest in equity assets [3] - Zhang Yongzhi advocates for independent thinking and a focus on absolute returns in a complex market environment, aiming to create long-term stable returns through flexible asset allocation and strict credit risk control [3]