不支持降息！美联储古尔斯比CPI出炉后“放鹰”

Core Viewpoint - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicates that he does not support interest rate cuts until inflation shows more progress towards the Fed's 2% target [1][2] Inflation Data - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, and below market expectations of 2.5% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since March 2021, which met expectations [1] Concerns on Inflation - Goolsbee expresses concerns about persistent service sector inflation, which he believes has not been contained and is not driven by tariffs [2] - He suggests that while there are signs of improvement in inflation, there are still underlying worries, particularly regarding service sector prices [2] Interest Rate Outlook - Goolsbee hints at further room for rate cuts before reaching what he considers a neutral interest rate, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [2] - Following the release of January inflation data, traders increased bets that the Fed may cut rates more than twice within 2026 [2] - The next Fed meeting is scheduled for March 17-18, with a 9.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 90.2% probability of maintaining current rates [2]