【东吴周视点】节前震荡蓄力，节后行情可期（第342期）

Market Overview - The market indices experienced narrow fluctuations this week, with trading volumes dropping below 2 trillion yuan on Wednesday and Friday. AI safety, film industry, and computing power leasing sectors led the gains, while traditional consumer sectors like liquor showed weakness. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.22%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 0.36% [3]. Policy Developments - On February 12, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Financial Regulatory Bureau, and the Civil Aviation Administration of China released implementation opinions to promote the high-quality development of low-altitude insurance. By 2027, a mandatory insurance system for unmanned aerial vehicles is expected to be established, with a comprehensive policy framework for low-altitude insurance by 2030. This sector is seen as a significant investment opportunity, with projections of a trillion-yuan market emerging [6][6]. - The Peking University Institute of Modern Optics announced the successful development of a high-performance quantum key distribution chip and an optical microcavity frequency comb light source chip. This development supports the establishment of a large-scale quantum key distribution network, which is expected to drive growth in the global Ethernet optical module market due to strong demand from AI infrastructure [6][6]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating within the 4050-4150 point range but fell below the 4100 point support level on Friday. The MACD indicator shows increasing bearish momentum, suggesting a potential test of the lower support at 4050 points in the near term [7]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a cautious stance with structural rotation of hotspots as investors await post-holiday liquidity and risk appetite recovery. The upcoming events, including the annual lending surge and the Two Sessions, are anticipated to support a gradual structural bull market. The historical data indicates a high probability of positive performance for the A-share market around the Spring Festival, with a notable 80% chance of gains in the five days before and after the holiday [11][12]. - The market is characterized by strong index resilience and stock differentiation, with funds gradually positioning for post-holiday expectations. High expectation companies are gaining recognition from investors, and the structural recovery is expected to continue [13]. Sector Performance - The robotics sector is highlighted, with Tesla's third-generation humanoid robot set to launch in Q1 2026, aiming for a production target of one million units annually. This sector has shown significant stock price increases, with notable gains among various companies [15][16].