中金固收：结汇增加推升M2，贷款需求减弱，利好债券配置需求

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a weakening support from government bond financing for social financing, leading to a slowdown in overall social financing growth, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 8.3% in December to 8.2% in January [1] Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - The demand for financing in the private sector remains weak, contributing to the overall sluggish growth in social financing [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of M2 increased from 8.0% in November to 9.0% in January, driven by a strong willingness of enterprises to settle in RMB and robust non-bank deposits [1] - The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of social financing and M2 is expected to influence interest rate trends, with potential further declines in bond rates anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - Insufficient bank credit issuance since January has led to increased bond allocation, resulting in a gradual decline in medium to long-term interest rates [1] - The central bank's monetary policy easing may accelerate, suggesting further declines in bond rates are likely [1] - Despite previous concerns about potential inflation exceeding expectations in the first quarter, recent declines in industrial product prices indicate a continuation of low inflation in the domestic economy [1] - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with recommendations for investors to actively monitor trading opportunities arising from potential discrepancies in inflation expectations after the Spring Festival [1]