税友股份近20日股价回调超22%，受股东减持及高估值压力影响

Company Overview - Taxfriend Co., Ltd. (603171.SH) has experienced a significant decline of 22.77% over the past 20 days, with a closing price of 66.79 yuan as of February 13, 2026, primarily due to the controlling shareholder's reduction plan, technical adjustments, market sentiment, and high valuation pressure [1] - The controlling shareholder, Ningbo Sichi, plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% (approximately 12.19 million shares) from March 3 to June 2, 2026, raising liquidity concerns [2] - The stock price reached a peak of 90.60 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 39% prior to the announcement of the reduction plan, leading to profit-taking [2] Financial and Technical Analysis - The stock has broken key moving averages, with the 20-day and 30-day moving averages at 73.58 yuan and 73.84 yuan, respectively, indicating a weak technical position [3] - The MACD has turned negative (-0.029), and the KDJ indicator has entered the oversold zone (K value of 19.11) [3] - There has been a net outflow of 32.987 million yuan from major funds over the past five days, with a single-day net outflow of 20% on February 13, 2026, and a turnover rate dropping to 0.86%, reflecting decreased market participation [3] Fundamental Analysis - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 253.45, placing it in the 97.6th percentile over the past five years, significantly higher than the industry median [4] - Despite a year-on-year increase of 42.33% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of AI product commercialization [4] - Sales expenses have increased by 20.05% year-on-year, and R&D expenses have risen to 337 million yuan, leading to a decline in gross margin to 59.19%, putting short-term profitability under pressure [4] Industry Context - The overall computer sector has seen a decline, with the Shenwan Computer Index dropping approximately 5% over the past 20 days, and the IT Services II sector down by 0.76%, indicating a downward shift in industry valuation [5] - Concept indices related to AI and digital economy have recently retreated, with Taxfriend's associated indices in smart governance and tax reform down by 0.21% and 0.90%, respectively, suggesting a cooling off in speculative trading [5]