金圆股份镍锂业务受关注，股价震荡业绩承压

Group 1: Core Insights - Indonesia's nickel mining policy changes have led to a significant reduction in mining quotas, decreasing to 260 million tons in 2026, a 30% drop from 2025, causing global nickel prices to fluctuate sharply [1] - Jin Yuan Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from the anticipated rise in nickel prices, as it has a nickel production capacity of 6,000 tons per year [1] - The company's lithium extraction project is currently in the equipment debugging phase due to high-altitude conditions, resulting in slow progress [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Jin Yuan's stock has shown volatility over the past week, with a 1.38% increase to 5.86 yuan on February 11, followed by a 1.71% decrease to 5.76 yuan on February 12, and a further slight decline to 5.75 yuan on February 13 [2] - Technical indicators suggest weak short-term momentum, with the MACD in negative territory and KDJ indicating a K value of 36.35 [2] - The stock is nearing its lower support level of 5.33 yuan, with a resistance level at 6.93 yuan [2] Group 3: Financial Analysis - Jin Yuan's financial performance is under pressure, with a net profit of -102 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 187.51% [3] - The company's return on equity stands at -5.84%, and its gross profit margin is -3.48%, significantly below the industry average of 27.57% [3] - The relative valuation range for the stock is between 4.99 and 5.51 yuan, with a C rating for accuracy, indicating poor profitability and a high stock price [3] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the nickel industry, with expectations of price support due to reduced supply from Indonesia, although short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to inventory accumulation [4] - Zhongyuan Securities has a "stronger than market" rating for the lithium battery industry, focusing on upstream raw material price trends, though it did not directly comment on Jin Yuan [4]