Standard Chartered’s Cautious Bitcoin Price Prediction Makes Sense — Why $50,000 Still Fits

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price is under pressure, currently trading around $66,000, with a 1.2% decline over the past 24 hours, indicating a weak broader market structure [1] Group 1: Institutional Sentiment and Market Indicators - Standard Chartered warns that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 before any sustained recovery, citing weakening ETF demand and declining institutional participation as significant risks [2] - Institutional flow indicators, particularly the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), have sharply declined, now appearing weaker than during the January-April 2025 correction when Bitcoin fell approximately 31% [3] - Bitcoin has already decreased nearly 38% from its peak, with CMF falling faster than in early 2025, suggesting a lack of institutional buying and difficulty for rallies to sustain [4] Group 2: On-Chain Data and Investor Confidence - On-chain data indicates fragile investor confidence, with the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric showing that most profits from the previous bull cycle have been wiped out, currently around 0.17 [6][7] - During the April 2024 rebound, NUPL was near 0.42, indicating minimal unrealized profits that supported recovery, contrasting sharply with the current lower levels [7]