国内棉市进入假期状态 国际棉价小幅抬升

Price Review - Domestic cotton prices are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract settlement price on the Zhengzhou cotton futures market averaging 14,699 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous week [2] - The national cotton price B index, representing the inland standard grade cotton market, averaged 15,985 yuan/ton, also up by 56 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous week [2] - Internationally, the New York cotton futures main contract averaged 63.58 cents/pound, rising by 1.57 cents/pound or 2.5% from the previous week, while the international cotton index (M) averaged 71.25 cents/pound, translating to an import cost of 12,106 yuan/ton, down by 11 yuan/ton or 0.1% [2] - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has expanded to 3,879 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The macro market is seeing improved expectations for U.S. cotton exports due to tariff agreements with India and Bangladesh, while positive U.S. non-farm employment data may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - The U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [4] - Domestic consumer prices are showing a mild recovery, with the core CPI rising by 0.3% in January, the highest in six months, and PPI increasing for four consecutive months [4] - The national cotton sales rate as of February 12 is 67.4%, up 21 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a better pre-holiday market situation compared to last year [5] - The overall order volume in the industry is relatively sufficient, with many companies shortening their holiday breaks to quickly resume production after the festival [5][6] Cotton Market Dynamics - The global cotton supply is currently loose in the short term but expected to tighten in the long term, with the USDA's February supply and demand forecast increasing global cotton production by 92,000 tons while reducing consumption by 44,000 tons [5] - The Indian Cotton Association has raised its production forecast for the year to 5.389 million tons, significantly higher than the USDA's recent estimate of 5.117 million tons [5] - Despite a general decline in U.S. cotton exports, the NCC predicts a decrease in U.S. planting area by 3.2% for 2026, which may support cotton prices in the future [5] - Domestic cotton inventory is approximately 894,000 tons, showing a slight increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, while yarn and fabric inventories have decreased, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [6]