黄金牛市悲喜：本金翻倍VS高位“站岗”，金价还能涨吗？

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 marked a significant surge in gold prices, with London spot gold closing around $4,300 per ounce, a 65% increase, the largest annual gain since 1979. This trend continued into 2026, where prices peaked near $5,600 before experiencing a sharp decline, leading to investor uncertainty about future gold investments and strategies [1][8]. Investor Experiences - Different investor experiences highlight the complexities of the gold market. Some, like Xuedi, benefited from early investments, while others, such as Shiyue, faced anxiety after entering the market at high prices. Tianshui's regret over missed opportunities illustrates the emotional spectrum among investors during this volatile period [2][3][5]. Market Dynamics - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5,002 tons, driven by economic volatility and geopolitical risks, with total demand valued at $555 billion. Investment demand surged to 2,175 tons, with significant contributions from gold ETFs and physical gold investments [6][7]. - The pricing logic of gold has evolved, shifting from a negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields to a more complex relationship involving U.S. debt levels and central bank purchases. This change reflects a diversified influx of investment sources, particularly from Asia and North America [7][10]. Future Outlook - As of early 2026, gold prices experienced volatility, with a peak above $5,600 followed by a drop exceeding 20%. Investor sentiment is mixed, with concerns about future price movements amid potential changes in U.S. monetary policy under the new Federal Reserve chair [9][10]. - Optimistic forecasts from institutions suggest gold prices could reach $6,600 per ounce by 2027, driven by sustained demand from central banks and investors. However, the end of the current bull market may hinge on U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies [11][12].