Delivery Hero Sinks as Talabat Opts to Spend

Core Viewpoint - Delivery Hero's shares declined following Talabat's 2026 guidance, which indicated a focus on market share over profit, leading to investor disappointment [2][3]. Financial Performance - Talabat expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $510 million to $540 million for 2026, which is below market consensus [3]. - Projected adjusted EBITDA margins are set to decrease to 4.4% to 4.8%, down from 6.5% in 2025 [4]. Growth Projections - Talabat anticipates GMV growth of 11% to 14% and revenue growth of 14% to 17%, driven by quick commerce and subscription expansion [4]. Investment Strategy - Talabat plans to invest around $150 million in 2026, with $100 million allocated for scaling dark stores and loyalty programs, and $50 million for the core food segment [5]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces increasing competition in the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, along with potential regulatory interventions to address below-cost pricing [5]. Market Sentiment - The increased spending and reduced margins overshadowed otherwise stable quarterly results, prompting investors to reassess the company's cash generation potential [6]. - Talabat has been viewed as a strong performer within Delivery Hero's portfolio, which consists of diverse markets with varying competitive dynamics [7]. Industry Context - The food delivery sector has a history of "invest now, profit later" strategies, which have led to subsidy wars and margin pressures [10].