China's stock bull run falters with corporate earnings set to underwhelm

Economic Outlook - A worsening earnings picture is leading to a negative outlook for Chinese equities, with concerns that Lunar New Year holiday spending may not be sufficient to boost earnings [1] - Corporate profit pre-announcements indicate a "major deterioration" for Q4 2025, with negative alerts outnumbering positive ones by 14.8% among over 2,000 A-share companies [4] Consumer Demand - Economic indicators highlight weak consumer demand as government stimulus programs are being scaled back, contributing to concerns about the upcoming holiday's impact on earnings [2][6] - China's economic growth slowed to 4.5% last quarter, marking the weakest pace since the end of Covid lockdowns, with producer prices falling 1.4% year-on-year [5] Market Sentiment - Sentiment towards Chinese stocks is currently weak, influenced by investor caution before the long holidays, lack of new catalysts, heightened regulatory scrutiny, and intense competition [3] - The MSCI China Index has only risen 0.8% this year, contrasting with a 2.8% gain in the MSCI All World Index and significant increases in South Korea and Taiwan [3] Regulatory Environment - Increased regulatory intervention, including tightened margin financing rules, is adding to market caution and affecting investor sentiment [7] Industry Performance - Earnings are diverging across industries, with metal miners and companies in the AI supply chain performing well, while electric vehicle manufacturers like BYD and Great Wall Motor are struggling due to poor sales [8][9] - Overall A-share earnings are projected to grow about 6.5% year-on-year for 2025, primarily driven by policy support rather than a fundamental shift in market conditions [10]