华金证券：四季度陆股通持仓继续上升 有色、通信获加仓较多

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the holdings of the Stock Connect program continue to rise in Q4 2025, with a total scale approaching 2.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 54.06 billion yuan from the previous quarter [1] - The largest sectors by holdings in Q4 2025 are New Energy (17.78%), Electronics (13.91%), and Non-ferrous Metals (7.18%), while the sectors with the largest increases in holdings are Non-ferrous Metals, Communications, and Basic Chemicals [8][10] - The proportion of holdings in the main board has slightly increased, while the proportion in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board has decreased [1][19] Group 2 - The sectors with increased holdings include Non-ferrous Metals (+1.96 percentage points), Communications (+0.77 percentage points), and Basic Chemicals (+0.48 percentage points), while the sectors with decreased holdings include Pharmaceuticals (-1.59 percentage points), Food and Beverages (-0.91 percentage points), and Automotive (-0.57 percentage points) [8][10] - Estimated net inflows for Q4 show significant inflows into Non-ferrous Metals (+24.872 billion yuan), Communications (+11.278 billion yuan), and Basic Chemicals (+5.711 billion yuan), while outflows were notable in Pharmaceuticals (-25.665 billion yuan) and Food and Beverages (-16.145 billion yuan) [8][10] Group 3 - Core assets and growth stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, China Ping An, and Siyuan Electric have seen significant changes in foreign holdings, with a decrease in the concentration of the top five holdings [14][15] - The top three stocks by holdings as of December 31, 2025, are Ningde Times (254.343 billion yuan), Midea Group (77.049 billion yuan), and Kweichow Moutai (75.812 billion yuan) [14][15] Group 4 - In Q1 2026, it is expected that Stock Connect funds will continue to increase their positions in core assets, technology, and cyclical sectors, driven by the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and improving fundamentals in the A-share market [19][20] - The sectors likely to attract foreign investment include technology growth and cyclical industries, with a focus on automotive, military, machinery, communications, and pharmaceuticals, as well as Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals [20][21]