下周外盘看点丨特朗普关税裁决即将出炉 1月PCE是否扰动降息前景

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.23%, the Nasdaq by 2.10%, and the S&P 500 by 1.39% last week [1] - In contrast, European indices saw gains, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.74%, the DAX 30 up by 0.78%, and the CAC 40 up by 0.46% [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The recent non-farm payroll report indicated strong U.S. employment data, with 130,000 jobs added in January, suggesting a low likelihood of interest rate cuts in the short term [2] - However, lower-than-expected inflation data has reignited expectations for potential rate cuts, with the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut by July [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to reveal debates among policymakers regarding maintaining rates versus supporting cuts [2] Economic Indicators - Key upcoming economic data includes the U.S. GDP preliminary value for Q4 and the PCE inflation data, which are critical for the Fed's assessment [2] - The European PMI data for February will be crucial for assessing economic outlook, with expectations of slight improvements in services but a contraction in manufacturing [8] Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude down by 1.04% to $62.89 per barrel and Brent crude down by 0.44% to $67.75 per barrel [5] - Gold futures rose by 1.43% to $5022.00 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 1.45% to $77.851 per ounce, driven by expectations of lower interest rates [5][6] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is nearing its end, with notable companies such as Occidental Petroleum, Walmart, eBay, and Chinese company Vipshop set to report their results [4]