华尔街大胆预测：为对冲劳动力缺口 沃什或容忍2.5%-3.5%的通胀！

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework may undergo a significant shift, with a potential tolerance for inflation rates rising to the 2.5% to 3.5% range under the leadership of Chairman Waller to support a higher operating temperature for the U.S. economy [1][4] - Current labor market data shows a balance between supply and demand, with both at 172 million, and job vacancies and non-temporary unemployment stable at 6.6 million, indicating a "perfect balance" [1][4] - The shift in policy is expected to reshape asset pricing logic, with continued interest rate cuts despite higher inflation, leading to a weaker dollar and a "bear steepening" pressure on the U.S. Treasury yield curve [3][16] Group 2 - The labor market's balance presents a "dual risk" scenario, where any contraction in either demand or supply could lead to a decline in output, necessitating policies that promote simultaneous expansion on both sides [4][16] - Wage inflation remains structurally elevated, with the Employment Cost Index (ECI) rising 3.4% year-over-year, exceeding the 3% threshold aligned with the 2% core PCE inflation target [8][11] - The structural rise in wage inflation is attributed to a persistent change in the labor force composition, with a reduction of nearly 3 million older workers since the pandemic, creating additional structural tension in the labor market [11][12] Group 3 - In the context of the dual risks in the labor market, the Federal Reserve may choose to tolerate structurally elevated wage inflation, effectively raising the inflation target range to 2.5% to 3.5% [16] - The macroeconomic backdrop suggests that equity assets are likely to continue outperforming fixed income products, with a tactical recommendation to overweight the MSCI global consumer discretionary sector relative to the industrial sector, which has underperformed by nearly 20% over the past 65 trading days [3][16] - Market sentiment may see a recovery window due to low real interest rates, potential fiscal stimulus support, and a resilient labor market, leading to a more optimistic pricing outlook for U.S. consumers [18]