盛松成：降准优于降息，货币政策宜采取“小步走”模式

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment is characterized by a transition period, with a stable economic foundation but challenges in domestic demand, real estate adjustments, and bank net interest margins. The focus is on leveraging economic potential through policy support and reform innovation [1]. Group 1: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination - The preference for "reducing reserve requirements over lowering interest rates" is based on the current low net interest margins of commercial banks, which makes significant interest rate cuts less feasible. This approach aligns with China's macroeconomic governance, where fiscal policy plays a leading role and monetary policy acts in support [2][3]. - The "gradual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates" approach is recommended due to high uncertainty, allowing for a more measured monetary policy implementation that considers market feedback [3]. - China's average reserve requirement ratio is approximately 6.3%, indicating significant room for reduction compared to Western countries, where reserve requirements have been largely eliminated [4]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Stability - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market include adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and lowering housing fund loan interest rates, resulting in a narrowing decline in key real estate indicators such as sales and funding [6][7]. - The key to stabilizing expectations in the real estate market lies in improving liquidity and addressing employment and income expectations, which are critical for demand recovery [7]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The shift from "investment in physical assets" to "investment in human capital" is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing public services in education, healthcare, and social security to drive economic growth [8][9]. - The government aims to increase fiscal spending on social welfare, which currently accounts for less than 10% of GDP, compared to 10-20% in developed countries, indicating room for growth [10]. Group 4: Consumption Activation - Short-term measures such as fiscal transfer payments (e.g., consumption vouchers) are deemed more urgent and effective for boosting consumer spending, especially for low-income groups [11][12]. - Long-term strategies should include tax reforms and targeted subsidies to stimulate demand in service sectors like elder care and childcare, which have significant growth potential [13][14][16].