Core Viewpoint - Recent media reports have raised concerns about Luzhou Bank (01983.HK) regarding shareholder reductions, capital adequacy ratios, and non-performing loans. However, a comprehensive examination of the bank's operational fundamentals, regional economic support, and strategic responses reveals that these concerns may be one-sided and do not fully reflect the bank's overall resilience and long-term value [1]. Group 1: Shareholder Reduction and Market Behavior - Shareholder reduction is a normal market behavior and should not be over-interpreted. After the reduction, FANYUE's shareholding dropped to 9.95%, still close to the 10% threshold, and as a financial investor, adjusting positions based on funding arrangements is typical [2]. - Stock price fluctuations are influenced by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry cycles, and market sentiment. Luzhou Bank's price-to-book ratio (PB) is 0.49, lower than the industry average, reflecting the valuation pressure on regional banks rather than individual operational deterioration [3]. Group 2: Performance Growth and Cost Control - The bank has demonstrated resilience in profit growth, with a 18.5% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, achieved through effective cost control despite slight revenue fluctuations [4]. - Non-interest income has experienced volatility primarily due to capital market fluctuations, but as market conditions improve, the bank's potential in intermediary business and wealth management is expected to gradually be realized [5]. Group 3: Capital Adequacy and Supplementation Plans - Capital adequacy ratios are within safe ranges, with the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at 8.01%, Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at 9.82%, and total capital adequacy ratio at 12.66%, all meeting regulatory requirements [6]. - The postponement of the H-share capital increase proposal reflects the board's respect for shareholder opinions and governance procedures, indicating that capital supplementation is not hindered. The bank can supplement capital through internal profit accumulation and issuing subordinated debt [7]. Group 4: Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio has slightly increased from 1.18% to 1.29%, remaining below the industry average of approximately 1.6%, with the increase mainly influenced by a few large clients. The bank has made sufficient provisions, maintaining a robust risk resistance capability [8]. - The proactive disclosure of risks demonstrates transparency and a commitment to risk management. The bank plans to submit a restructuring proposal for a risk exposure of 818 million yuan, showcasing a responsible attitude towards risk [10]. Group 5: Regional Economic Support and Shareholder Background - The largest shareholder, Luzhou Laojiao Group, not only provides capital support but also brings quality customer resources through industrial chain collaboration. Luzhou City, as a key node in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, offers a favorable environment for the bank's business development [11]. - The bank is gradually optimizing its credit structure, increasing investments in inclusive finance and green finance. Although the proportion of loans to the construction and real estate sectors is high, these projects are primarily focused on local key projects and quality enterprises, keeping overall risk manageable [12]. Group 6: Strategic Layout and Governance Optimization - The introduction of professional directors enhances governance capabilities, with new board members bringing expertise in risk management and governance, supporting strategic transformation and non-performing asset disposal [13]. - As the first listed bank in a prefecture-level city in the western region, Luzhou Bank has significant advantages in brand recognition, customer base, and channel networks in the local market, playing an irreplaceable role in regional economic development [14]. Conclusion - The challenges faced by Luzhou Bank are common phenomena for regional banks during economic transitions, rather than individual crises. The bank exhibits strong resilience in profitability, risk resistance, and corporate governance, with strategic adjustments and risk management measures being forward-looking and actionable. Investors and the market should focus on the improvement of fundamentals and the dual opportunities presented by regional economic recovery [15].
理性看待泸州银行：短期波动下的长期价值与韧性分析