Oil Refiner Stocks Are Having a Banner 2026. Should You Invest $1,000?

Core Insights - Oil refiners are currently benefiting from lower input costs and increased demand for their products, leading to a surge in refining stocks in 2026 [1] Group 1: Refining Industry Performance - Refining companies like Valero Energy, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum have reported significant year-to-date returns, with each company achieving around 25% to 28% returns, compared to the S&P 500's 1.6% increase [2] - The 3-2-1 crack spread, which indicates profit margins for refiners, increased by approximately 45% in the fourth quarter year-over-year, reflecting improved profitability [6] - Marathon Petroleum's margin reached $18.65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, about 50% higher than the previous year, while Phillips 66's margin more than doubled to $12.48 per barrel, and Valero's margin increased by 61% [6][7] Group 2: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - An oil glut has kept crude prices low, with 1.4 billion barrels of oil on the water in December, representing a 24% increase compared to the average from 2016-2024 [3] - Brent crude prices have decreased by about 9% over the past year, while West Texas Intermediate has fallen nearly 11% [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent crude will average $58 per barrel in 2026, down from $69 in 2025, with further declines expected in 2027 [8] Group 3: Demand Projections - Global consumption of liquid fuels is projected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 and an additional 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027, driven by increased manufacturing, trucking, and air travel [9] - The demand for refined fuel oils is expected to rise in 2026 and 2027, while crude prices are anticipated to continue their downward trend [9]