Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-15 07:19Core Viewpoint - Meituan has issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of over 23 billion to 24.3 billion yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to a profit of 35.8 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a significant downturn in its core local business segment [1][17]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Meituan's core local business, which includes food delivery and hotel bookings, is projected to suffer a loss of approximately 6.8 billion to 7 billion yuan in 2025, a drastic drop from a profit of 52.4 billion yuan in 2024 [2][17]. - The company's marketing expenses surged from 18 billion yuan to 34.3 billion yuan in a single quarter, reflecting the intense competition in the market [3][20]. - Meituan's quarterly performance shows a net profit of 10.05 billion yuan in Q1, a slight profit of 36.5 million yuan in Q2, followed by a significant net loss of 18.63 billion yuan in Q3, leading to a projected total loss of 23.3 billion yuan for 2025 [5][20]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the food delivery market has intensified, with Meituan, Alibaba (including Ele.me and Taobao Flash Sale), and JD.com engaged in a price war, collectively burning over 100 billion yuan in marketing expenses [6][20]. - Market share projections for the end of 2025 indicate Meituan holding 48-50%, Alibaba's group at 33-42%, and JD.com at 8-19%, marking a shift from a previous duopoly to a more competitive landscape [21][22]. - The entry of Douyin (TikTok) into the group buying space poses a significant threat to Meituan, as younger consumers are increasingly turning to Douyin for purchasing [28][29]. Group 3: Strategic Investments - Meituan's strategic investments include substantial subsidies to attract users, increased rider costs due to social security requirements, and efforts to lower fees for merchants to maintain competitiveness [3][18]. - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale is reportedly narrowing its loss per order, indicating a more efficient approach to competition, with expectations of continued investment in the instant retail market [10][25]. - The focus for both Meituan and Alibaba in 2026 will be on instant retail, with plans to enhance supply chain capabilities in key categories such as pharmaceuticals and fresh produce [14][26].