【硬科技头条】深圳出海巨头模式“失灵”：年收入突破 40 亿，净利润却暴跌 90%

Core Viewpoint - Huabao New Energy, known as the "first stock of portable energy storage," is forecasting a significant drop in net profit for 2025, despite a steady increase in revenue. The company expects revenue to reach between 4 billion to 4.2 billion yuan, up from 3.606 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit is projected to plummet over 90% to less than 23 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of only 0.37%-0.58% [1][4][18]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The expected revenue for 2025 is between 40 billion to 42 billion yuan, reflecting a steady growth from 36.06 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - The net profit is anticipated to fall from 239 million yuan in 2024 to approximately 23 million yuan in 2025, indicating a decline of over 90% [1][14]. Sales and Marketing Expenses - High sales expenses are a significant factor in the profit decline, with sales expenses reaching 8.21 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, resulting in a sales expense ratio of about 27.9% [5][6]. - Huabao New Energy's sales expense ratio is notably higher than competitors, with Anker Innovations at approximately 22.35% and Ugreen Technology at about 20.12% [6][7]. Promotional Strategies - The company has increased its investment in brand building and market promotion, which has contributed to the decline in net profit [4][8]. - Promotional strategies, particularly during key shopping periods like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, have pressured profit margins [9][10]. Quarterly Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Huabao New Energy is expected to generate revenue of approximately 10.58 billion to 12.58 billion yuan, which is consistent with the average revenue of the previous three quarters but lower than historical performance [11][12]. - The projected net profit for the fourth quarter is estimated to be a loss of about 120 million to 128 million yuan, leading to a net profit margin of approximately -9.5% to -12.1% [13][14]. External Factors Impacting Profit - The company's export business has been affected by geopolitical and trade policy changes, leading to increased costs and a decline in gross profit margins [17]. - Huabao New Energy's reliance on the North American market is significant, with sales in this region accounting for about 56% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [17]. - The company anticipates a foreign exchange loss of approximately 20 million to 30 million yuan for the entire year, with the fourth quarter alone expected to incur losses of about 35 million to 45 million yuan [17]. Business Model and Future Challenges - Huabao New Energy represents a typical path for Shenzhen cross-border consumer electronics companies, relying heavily on advertising to drive revenue growth [18]. - The company is exploring diversification into home energy solutions, but this shift requires sustained R&D investment and long-term technical accumulation, posing a challenge to maintain profitability while expanding [18].