“新美联储通讯社”：美国经济逼近“软着陆”时刻 但宣布胜利为时尚早

Economic Indicators - Multiple key indicators of the US economy are improving simultaneously, with inflation cooling, resilient employment, and steady growth, suggesting a "soft landing" is becoming increasingly plausible, though not yet confirmed [1] - The latest inflation report shows that core prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in January, marking the lowest level since the inflation rise in 2021 [1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in January, with 130,000 new jobs added, exceeding expectations [1] Inflation Dynamics - Despite the positive data, core inflation remains close to 3%, having rebounded from a low of 2.6% last April, with analysts predicting that tariff increases may slow the downward trend of inflation this year [1][2] - Housing costs, previously a major driver of inflation, have cooled significantly, but service prices outside of housing remain firm, and prices of goods sensitive to tariffs are accelerating [2] - Core goods prices, excluding used cars, increased by 4.4% on an annualized basis in January, the fastest growth in three years, indicating that manufacturers may start passing on costs to consumers [2] Employment Market - The employment market appears stable on the surface, but underlying momentum is weakening, with revised data showing an average of only 15,000 new jobs added per month in 2025, the lowest in nearly all years except during recessions [3] - The stability in the unemployment rate is largely due to companies neither significantly increasing hiring nor conducting mass layoffs, indicating a fragile balance [3] Consumer Spending and Inflation - Strong consumer spending is both a support for the economy and a potential barrier to achieving the 2% inflation target, as rising asset prices could lead to reduced consumer spending if market sell-offs occur [4] - Some analysts express concern that overly strong consumer spending could keep inflation above 2%, with expectations of the unemployment rate dropping to 4% and inflation stabilizing around 2.8% [5] Policy Uncertainty - The ability of inflation to continue declining depends on supply-side and policy-side variables, with analysts suggesting that tariff-related price increases may limit the potential for inflation improvement this year [6] - The transition in monetary policy leadership may amplify uncertainty, as the White House may push for rate cuts if the economy remains strong, while the Federal Reserve maintains its focus on the inflation target [6]