Nucor's Latest Dividend: What Steel's Cycles Mean for Your Income

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation is facing significant challenges with negative free cash flow and declining net income, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend despite a strong balance sheet and a long history of dividend payments [1][2]. Financial Performance - Nucor generated negative free cash flow of $188 million in 2025, marking the first time in its history that it failed to produce positive free cash flow [1]. - The company paid out $512 million in dividends during 2025, consuming 25.1% of net income, a sharp increase from 5.3% in 2022 [1]. - Net income fell 75% to $2.04 billion in 2025, down from $8.08 billion in 2022, with operating cash flow dropping 68% from its peak [1][2]. Dividend Analysis - The latest quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share represents a modest 1.82% increase from the previous quarter, with a full-year dividend of $2.21 per share, up just 1.84% from 2024 [1]. - The current dividend yield is 1.15%, significantly below the S&P 500 average, making it less attractive for income-focused investors [1][2]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $3.23 billion, while capital expenditures were $3.42 billion, leading to negative free cash flow [1]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with $2.70 billion in cash and a $2.25 billion undrawn credit facility, providing a cushion to support dividend payments [1][2]. Market Valuation - Nucor's stock is priced at 26 times trailing earnings and 17 times forward earnings, indicating that the market is betting on future earnings growth rather than current dividend income [2]. - The stock has appreciated 46.62% over the past year, driven by expectations of a cyclical recovery in the steel industry [2]. Economic Context - U.S. GDP growth accelerated to 4.4% in Q3 2025, which could support industrial demand and improve Nucor's cash generation in 2026 [2]. - Management is optimistic about increased earnings in Q1 2026, driven by higher volumes and prices, which could restore positive cash flow [2]. Insider Activity - Recent insider transactions show a concerning trend, with 15 disposals compared to only 2 acquisitions, indicating a lack of confidence from management [1]. - Notable sales include CEO Leon Topalian and CFO Stephen Laxton disposing of shares, which raises questions about their outlook on the company's performance [1].