Why the SpaceX IPO Will Be Good, Bad, and Ugly for Other Space Stocks

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX's proposed IPO in 2026 is expected to be the largest in history, potentially raising $50 billion, but it may negatively impact other space stocks by overshadowing them and altering their perceived value [2][4][14]. Group 1: IPO Details - Elon Musk plans for SpaceX to go public in 2026, with a projected market capitalization of $1.5 trillion, which would still be less than major tech companies like Alphabet and Apple [1][2]. - The IPO is anticipated to raise up to $50 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO, which raised $29.4 billion [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Space Stocks - The IPO is likely to draw significant attention to space stocks, with companies like Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, and Planet Labs seeing stock gains between 150% to 250% over the past year, compared to the S&P 500's 14% gain [5][8]. - A $1.5 trillion valuation for SpaceX would imply a valuation of over 60 times sales, making other space stocks appear undervalued, such as Firefly Aerospace and Planet Labs, which are valued at less than 30 times sales [9][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - SpaceX's IPO could create a significant financial gap between it and smaller space companies, as the $50 billion raised will be used to fund ambitious projects, including AI data centers in orbit and the development of the Starship reusable rocket [12][13]. - The dominance of SpaceX post-IPO may lead to a sell-off in other space stocks, as investors may prefer to invest in SpaceX rather than smaller companies, potentially leading to a decrease in their stock prices [14][15].