A Housing ETF Up 15.7% Despite 38% Plunge in Key Residential Demand Factor

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has increased by 15.7% year to date, reflecting investor optimism despite a 38% year-over-year decline in residential HVAC demand, indicating a complex housing market scenario [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is trading at $119.10 per share as of February 12, 2026, showing a year-to-date gain of 15.7% [1]. - The rally in the ETF is attributed to easing mortgage rates and improving affordability, which are expected to revive housing demand [1]. Group 2: Company Insights - D.R. Horton (DHI) and PulteGroup (PHM) are experiencing margin compression due to land impairment charges, despite some order growth [1]. - Carrier Global (CARR), the largest holding in XHB at 3.68%, reported a 38% decline in its residential HVAC segment, while its commercial HVAC business surged due to data center demand [1]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Consumer sentiment remains cautious, with readings in late 2025 falling to levels typically associated with recessions, impacting housing demand [1]. - Housing starts have significantly declined from year-ago levels, indicating builders are reducing new projects in response to weak demand despite favorable mortgage rates [1]. Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - The stabilization of Treasury yields has led to more affordable mortgage rates, which is crucial for unlocking demand for new homes [1]. - Monitoring the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Federal Reserve's housing starts data will be essential for assessing market recovery [1].