Don’t Look – But We Might Be on the Brink of a Market Breakout

Core Insights - The trucking industry has faced challenges over the past three years, with declining rates and volumes, but recent data indicates potential stabilization and upward pressure on rates [1][2]. Group 1: National Truckload Index - The SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI) shows a recent increase in spot rates, currently at $2.80 per mile, indicating a potential firming of the market [3][5]. - Although rates are not back to the highs seen during COVID, the upward movement suggests a shift from the previous downward trend [4]. Group 2: Outbound Tender Volume - The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is currently around 10,110, which is slightly below the historical average of 11,731, indicating that freight demand has stabilized [6]. - This stabilization may precede a tightening in the market, especially if freight volumes hold steady while capacity decreases [7]. Group 3: Tender Rejections - The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) has seen carriers beginning to reject contracts again, a sign of improving market conditions as carriers seek better opportunities [8].