高盛：受日本央行政策风险影响，日元本轮涨势 “过猛、过快”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that if the Bank of Japan continues its gradual interest rate hike path leveraging the recent strength of the yen, the rebound of the yen post-election may face risks [1] Group 1: Yen Outlook - Despite the potential continuation of the yen's upward momentum in the coming weeks, the current rally may be considered excessive and rapid [1] - If the Bank of Japan utilizes the recent yen strength to maintain a more gradual rate hike, the yen could revert to a depreciation trend, and the long-term government bond yield curve may experience volatility [1] Group 2: Capital Flows and Dollar Dynamics - The likelihood of significant capital repatriation to Japan in the short term remains low, as data indicates that a narrower interest rate differential or a steeper Japanese government bond yield curve is required to trigger such flows [1] - The dollar may continue to be pressured by multiple factors, including instability in U.S. policy-making, sell-offs in technology stocks weakening U.S. equity performance, and unique situations in the Asian region, collectively driving the dollar weaker [1] - This situation is particularly important for investors focused on dollar valuation and betting on a weaker dollar, as the current overvaluation of the dollar is entirely attributed to the relative performance of Asian currencies [1]