2026年开年70城房价降幅总体收窄

Core Insights - The overall sales prices of residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2026 showed a narrowing decline month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease, indicating a gradual stabilization and recovery in the real estate market [1][4]. New Housing Market - In January, first-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3% in new residential property prices, consistent with the previous month, with Shanghai remaining stable while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively [2][3]. - Five cities reported positive month-on-month price increases for new homes, a decrease of one city compared to December 2025, including Dalian, Hefei, Xiamen, Wuhan, and Nanchong [2]. - The new housing market is primarily focused on inventory digestion, with fewer new projects launched and developers offering discounts to stimulate sales [2]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market showed a more positive trend in January, with a month-on-month decline of 0.5% in first-tier cities, a significant narrowing of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][5]. - Beijing led the recovery in the first-tier second-hand housing market with a month-on-month decline of only 0.2%, while Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.4%, 0.7%, and 0.6% respectively [4]. - For the first time in four months, two cities, Yangzhou and Zhanjiang, reported month-on-month price increases in the second-hand housing market, with increases of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [5]. Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year, first-tier cities experienced a 2.1% decline in new residential property prices, with Shanghai showing a 4.2% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 2.4%, 5.3%, and 4.9% respectively [3][5]. - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices for first-tier cities was 7.6%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 8.7%, 6.8%, 8.3%, and 6.5% respectively [5]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the real estate market is entering a new phase of "stable operation and differentiated development," where price trends will reflect more regional disparities rather than uniform increases or decreases [6]. - The overall housing market is expected to stabilize gradually, supported by resilient demand and positive signals in the circulation end, although the recovery foundation remains fragile [4][6].