大摩：永利澳门第四季业绩疲弱但符预期 维持“增持”评级

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has issued a report rating Wynn Macau (01128) as "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 7.4, indicating a cautious outlook despite some positive indicators in the gaming sector [1] Financial Performance - Wynn Macau's EBITDA for Q4 2025 is projected at USD 271 million, reflecting a quarterly and year-over-year decline of 12% and 7% respectively; adjusted EBITDA is expected to be USD 287 million, showing a quarterly increase of 1% but a year-over-year decrease of 2%, aligning with Morgan Stanley's expectations but falling short of market expectations [1] - Over the past year, Wynn Macau's corporate EBITDA has decreased by 7% year-over-year, underperforming compared to peers in the industry [1] Market Context - The total gaming revenue in Macau has increased this year, with Wynn Macau's gaming revenue in January surpassing that of Q4 last year [1] - The new Chairman's Club at Wynn Palace is set to open before the Lunar New Year, which may enhance customer experience and revenue potential [1] - Retail rental income in Q4 has increased by 28% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a positive trend in non-gaming revenue streams [1] Investment Considerations - The current valuation of Wynn Macau is below the industry average, suggesting potential for upside; however, investor reluctance towards less liquid stocks persists unless the company can capture market share, which did not occur in Q4 [1] - Simply relying on low valuations may not be sufficient to attract investors to Wynn Macau [1]