通胀重新点燃美联储降息希望 金价测试5000关口支撑

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a decline, with the latest price reported at $4986.47 per ounce, down 0.65% from an opening price of $5019.14 per ounce, reaching a high of $5030.62 and a low of $4954.42 [1] - The U.S. inflation data for January was below expectations, reigniting hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, overshadowing the strong employment data from the previous week [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase due to favorable inflation data, while the Nasdaq index declined under pressure from major tech stocks [2] - The market is cautious ahead of the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday, with significant volatility expected as midterm elections approach and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership loom [2] Gold Market - Gold prices rose over 2% last Friday, closing the week higher at $5022.06 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.2% [3] - The easing inflation concerns have alleviated market tensions, leading to a bullish sentiment for gold, with expectations of a cumulative rate cut of 63 basis points this year, the first cut anticipated in July [3] - Demand for gold remains strong in China ahead of the Spring Festival, while the Indian market has shifted to a discount [3] - ANZ has raised its second-quarter gold price forecast to $5800 per ounce, citing increased attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Oil Market - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $67.75 per barrel, and U.S. crude futures up by 0.08% to $62.89 per barrel [4] - Despite the slight rebound, both benchmarks recorded weekly declines, influenced by concerns over OPEC+ potentially resuming production increases [4] - The U.S. inflation data has improved risk appetite, which may positively impact economic growth and energy demand [4] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar remained stable against major currencies, with January inflation data suggesting the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged [5] - The Japanese yen experienced its strongest weekly gain in about 15 months, supported by political stability following the recent election [6] - The Australian dollar has shown significant performance, becoming the best-performing major currency of 2026 so far, despite a slight decline at the end of the New York session [7]