宽远资产总经理甄新中：2026年市场将处在“相对低估、震荡向上”的阶段

Group 1: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to maintain stability, with low probability of major policy shifts, reflecting continuity in fiscal, monetary, and capital market regulations [3] - International relations, particularly between China and the US, will remain a variable, with tariff issues likely to persist but without a high risk of escalation [3] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumption - The real estate sector is a significant variable for China's economy, with sales and prices nearing a phase bottom, particularly in first and second-tier cities [5] - Stability in housing prices is deemed crucial for boosting consumer spending, which is anticipated to improve gradually due to multiple factors including employment recovery and policy stimulus [5] Group 3: Valuation and Asset Allocation - Equity assets are highlighted as attractive in 2026, with Chinese ten-year government bond yields at historical lows and A-share indices offering favorable valuation levels and dividend yields [7] - The Chinese stock market remains undervalued compared to major economies, providing a safety margin for long-term investments [7] Group 4: Industry Trends - The focus of AI-related investments is shifting from potential to actual profitability, emphasizing companies that integrate AI into their business models for sustainable cash flow [9] - Chinese companies are enhancing their competitiveness through trade surpluses and technological advancements, transitioning from product exports to capacity expansion overseas [9] Group 5: Market Outlook for 2026 - The Chinese stock market is expected to exhibit a "shaking upwards" trend in 2026, with structural opportunities continuing to emerge despite uncertainties [11] - The average dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for investment portfolios is projected to be between 11 and 12 times, with an average dividend yield of around 4%, indicating potential for good performance in 2026 [11]