Healthy Global Loan Issuance Volumes to Drive Moody's Q4 Earnings

Core Insights - Moody's (MCO) is expected to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, with a focus on revenue growth across its divisions [1][9]. Corporate Finance - The Corporate Finance line, the largest revenue contributor within the Moody's Investors Service (MIS) division, is projected to see a revenue increase of 22.7% year-over-year, with estimates at $467.4 million, driven by healthy bond and loan issuance volumes [3][9]. - Global bond issuance activity remained robust in the fourth quarter, despite seasonal slowdowns in December, supporting issuance volumes [2]. Financial Institutions and Other Business Lines - The Financial Institutions business line is estimated to generate revenues of $173.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [4]. - Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance revenues are expected to reach $139.1 million, indicating a growth of 20.1% [4]. Structured Finance - Structured Finance revenues are anticipated to rise to $149.8 million, suggesting an 8.5% increase, supported by strong issuance volumes in collateral debt obligations and asset-backed securities [5]. Moody's Analytics Division - The Moody's Analytics (MA) division is projected to report revenues of $945 million, representing a 9.1% growth year-over-year, driven by rising demand for analytics and efforts to enhance profitability [6][7]. Overall Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The total revenue for the MIS division is expected to be $993.9 million, indicating a 15.8% year-over-year rise [5][9]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.46, reflecting a 32.1% increase from the previous year [11]. 2025 Outlook - Moody's anticipates adjusted earnings per share between $14.50 and $14.75, with GAAP earnings projected at $13.15 to $13.40 per share, and expects revenue growth in the high-single-digit percent range for both MIS and MA segments [13].