Stablecoins Aren’t Dollar Alternatives — IMF Data Shows They’re Treasury-Wrapped Dollars

Core Insights - The stablecoin market is increasingly reliant on short-term U.S. government debt, transforming it into a private distribution layer for dollars rather than a replacement for traditional finance [1][2] - Dollar-pegged stablecoins constitute 97% of the issuance, with USDT and USDC making up approximately 90% of the market, indicating a high concentration in the sector [2] - The migration towards safer, more liquid backing assets, particularly U.S. Treasuries and Treasury-collateralized repos, is evident in the stablecoin ecosystem [3][4] Market Dynamics - Stablecoin reserves are significantly allocated to Treasury bills and repos, with projections indicating that by mid-2025, USDC reserves will heavily feature these assets [4] - Tether reported a record exposure of $141 billion to U.S. Treasuries at the end of 2025, highlighting the trend towards safer investments [4] - Stablecoin demand has the potential to influence Treasury pricing, with research indicating that inflows into stablecoins can lead to a measurable drop in three-month Treasury yields [5][6] Usage Trends - The primary use of stablecoins remains driven by crypto trading, although payment applications are on the rise [6] - Reserve disclosures from stablecoin issuers show a clear trend towards Treasury bills and repos, aligning stablecoins more closely with money-market instruments [6]