Roku Stock Is Down 17% This Year. Time to Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Roku's stock experienced a significant increase following its fourth-quarter earnings release, showcasing strong profitability and positive guidance for future growth, despite being down approximately 17% year-to-date [1][2]. Financial Performance - Roku's fourth-quarter revenue rose 16% year over year to about $1.4 billion, driven by an 18% increase in high-margin platform revenue, which constitutes 88% of total revenue [4]. - The company's fourth-quarter net income was approximately $80 million, a turnaround from a loss of $36 million in the same quarter last year, while full-year 2025 net income reached $88 million, up from a $129 million loss in 2024 [6]. Business Momentum - Streaming hours on Roku's platform increased by 15% year over year in 2025, with the Roku Channel growing to represent 6.3% of all TV streaming on its platform in December, up from 4.6% in December 2024 [5]. - Roku's management expects first-quarter platform revenue to grow over 21% year over year, contributing to an overall revenue increase of about 18% for the same period [8]. Profitability Outlook - The company guided for adjusted EBITDA of $130 million in Q1 and $635 million for the full year of 2026, reflecting an increase from $421 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2025 [9]. - Roku anticipates net income for 2026 to reach $325 million, significantly up from $88 million in 2025, indicating strong expectations for profitability improvement [9]. Market Position and Valuation - Despite the positive financial momentum, Roku's shares are trading at over 40 times the management's forecast for full-year earnings in fiscal 2026, raising concerns about the sustainability of such a premium valuation [10]. - The company faces intense competition from larger tech firms, which poses risks to its market leadership and future growth potential [11].