SEM to Report Q4 Earnings: Can Higher Admissions Protect Results?

Core Viewpoint - Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 19, 2026, with earnings estimated at 23 cents per share and revenues at $1.36 billion [1]. Financial Performance Estimates - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by one cent over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year increase of 27.8% [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year growth of 3.7% [2]. - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $5.42 billion, reflecting an 18.2% year-over-year decline, while the earnings per share estimate is $1.23, implying a rise of 30.9% from the previous year [3]. Earnings Surprise History - Select Medical's earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, missing in the other two, with an average surprise of 8.7% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for SEM, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4]. Segment Performance Insights - The Critical Illness Recovery segment is projected to see a 2.1% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4, with revenues per Patient Day expected to increase by 2.8% [6]. - The Rehabilitation Hospital segment's revenues are anticipated to rise by 11.1% in Q4, with revenues per Patient Day expected to increase by 5.9% [8]. - The Outpatient Rehabilitation segment's adjusted EBITDA is projected to surge by 55.8% year-over-year, although revenues per Visit are expected to dip by 0.8% [9]. Operational Metrics - A 3.8% increase in admissions is expected in Q4, with an occupancy rate projected at 67.3% [7]. - The Rehabilitation Hospital segment is expected to see admissions grow by 10.4% year-over-year, with an occupancy rate expanding by 320 basis points to 84.2% [8]. - Total operating expenses are estimated to decrease to $1.28 billion, primarily due to lower general and administrative expenses, despite a nearly 6% growth in interest expense [10]. Peer Performance Comparison - Ensign Group reported a fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.82, beating estimates by 4%, with a 19.5% year-over-year improvement in earnings [12]. - Encompass Health reported an adjusted EPS of $1.46, exceeding estimates by 13.2%, with a 24.8% year-over-year increase in earnings [13].