程实｜中国资本市场：龙马精神，未来可期｜马年大咖谈

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that six positive factors are collaboratively emerging, forming a solid foundation for the medium to long-term value of China's capital market [1] - By 2026, China's capital market is expected to demonstrate enhanced resilience and significant potential in supporting high-quality development [1] Group 2 - The potential space for valuation is highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index having price-to-earnings ratios of approximately 14.18 and 12.47, respectively, as of January 30, 2026, indicating a relative undervaluation compared to major global markets [2] - Since 2023, the recovery in global capital markets has seen the Shanghai Composite Index rise by about 21.7% and the Hang Seng Index by approximately 40%, showcasing a more stable recovery rhythm for Chinese assets [2] Group 3 - The financial environment is continuously improving, with the easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve leading to a decline in global discount rates and reduced liquidity constraints, making Chinese assets more attractive [3] - China's capital market is less sensitive to changes in discount rates, providing a risk-hedging function in global asset reallocation [3] Group 4 - Foreign capital allocation is steadily expanding, with global institutions adjusting their economic growth forecasts for China to a more optimistic outlook, indicating a shift in foreign investment behavior towards more rational participation [4] - Chinese capital markets are gaining comprehensive attractiveness due to relative valuation advantages and stable growth expectations [4] Group 5 - The comparative advantage in economic quality is emphasized, with capital markets reflecting the quality of economic growth rather than just the speed of growth, aligning with the high-quality development framework of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The capital market is expected to guide resources towards more efficient and sustainable sectors, enhancing its role in high-quality development [5] Group 6 - Financial deepening continues to empower the capital market, improving its ability to serve the real economy and optimize financing structures [6] - The development of a multi-tiered capital market system enhances the stability and resilience of the overall financial system [6] Group 7 - The hub function of the capital market is increasingly prominent, acting as a crucial point for the intersection and adjustment of various economic factors [7] - The capital market influences consumer confidence and investment willingness, supporting the release of consumption potential and fostering a virtuous cycle between market value and economic fundamentals [7]