Down 35% Over the Past Year, Is Dutch Bros Stock a Buy as Same-Store Sales Growth Continues to Shine?

Core Insights - Dutch Bros has demonstrated strong operational performance despite a 35% decline in stock price over the past year, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] Financial Performance - Comparable-restaurant sales increased by 7.7% in Q4, with same-store transactions rising 5.5% [3] - Company-owned stores saw a 9.7% increase in comparable-shop sales, driven by a 7.6% rise in transactions [3] - Total Q4 revenue surged by 29% to $443.6 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 49% year over year to $72.6 million [7] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) more than doubled from $0.07 to $0.17 [7] Growth Strategies - Mobile ordering accounted for approximately 14% of transactions, up from 13% in Q3 and 11.5% in Q2, contributing to same-store sales growth [4] - The company plans to open at least 181 new shops in 2026, following the opening of 154 new shops in 2025 [5] - Dutch Bros aims to reach a total of 2,029 shops by 2029, indicating a clear expansion path [5] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Dutch Bros generated $54.4 million in free cash flow for 2025, allowing it to fund its expansion through operating cash flow [6] - Capital expenditures per shop decreased from $1.8 million to $1.3 million year over year [6] Future Projections - The company projects 2026 revenue between $2 billion and $2.03 billion, representing growth of 22% to 24% [8] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is forecasted to be between $355 million and $365 million [8] Market Position - Dutch Bros is viewed as a strong expansion story in the restaurant sector, with an average unit volume of $2.1 million per shop [10] - The stock is considered a relative bargain with a forward price-to-sales multiple of 3.2 compared to Starbucks' 2.8, highlighting its growth potential [11]