黄金白银，跳水！有色金属，全面回调

Group 1: Market Trends - On the first day of the Year of the Horse, the prices of gold and silver have significantly dropped, while major non-ferrous metals have also experienced a general pullback [1][6] - As of February 17, LME copper fluctuated below $13,000 per ton, and aluminum hovered around $3,000 per ton, indicating a weak market trend due to increased inventories and low trading activity during the Spring Festival [1][6] Group 2: Copper Inventory - LME copper inventory increased by 7,975 tons, a rise of 3.91%, reaching 211,800 tons, marking a more than 50% increase since January 9 [2][7] - Global copper inventories across major exchanges have surpassed 1.1 million tons for the first time since early 2003, with a total increase of 300,000 tons since the beginning of January [2][7] - The rapid increase in copper inventory has led to a significant decline in premiums, with the Yangshan copper premium hitting an 18-month low of $22 per ton last month [2][7] Group 3: Excavator Sales - In January 2026, sales of various excavators reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales at 8,723 units (up 61.4%) and exports at 9,985 units (up 40.5%) [3][8] - For the entire year of 2025, excavator sales totaled 235,257 units, reflecting a 17% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 17.9% and exports up 16.1% [3][8] - HSBC's latest report suggests that domestic excavator brands can further capture market share and expand profits due to the rising mining cycle and electrification trends, with expected growth in 2026 of 15% for exports and 6% for domestic sales [3][8] Group 4: Dollar Pressure - Despite the significant increase in copper inventory, concerns regarding the dollar remain a crucial driving force for the non-ferrous market, with the dollar down 1.3% this year, hovering near a four-year low [4][9] - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that fund managers' dollar positions have reached their most negative level since 2012, with a high degree of bearish sentiment towards the dollar [4][9] - As the dollar weakens, there has been a notable inflow of funds into emerging markets, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 11% this year and the Korean Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) rising over 30% [10]