Youtube·2026-02-17 13:14Core Viewpoint - The human software sector is currently trading at 10-year lows in terms of multiples, indicating a significant market selloff that has broadly affected many companies, suggesting an exaggerated reduction in expected growth rates [1][5][12] Valuation Metrics - The sector is trading at an average of slightly above 10 times EBITDA, a stark contrast to the historical average of about 25 times, indicating strong support levels for depressed valuations [5] - The one-year forward PE ratio for the sector is currently at 17 times, projected to decrease to 14 times in 2027, aligning more closely with the broader equity market despite the sector's faster growth [5] Growth Expectations - Companies in Europe are expected to achieve around 10% revenue growth, but the market is pricing in a much lower growth rate for the future [6][12] - The anticipated growth for many companies in Europe remains healthy, with no downgrades expected through 2026, although acceleration in revenue growth is not evident [12] Company-Specific Insights - Companies with strong customer bases and data modes, such as SAP, are viewed as more insulated from market risks, despite not holding shares in these companies [3][9] - The integration level of software solutions, particularly ERP systems, makes it challenging for companies to switch providers, providing a competitive advantage to established players [7][9] Market Dynamics - The current market environment shows a lack of differentiation among software companies, creating potential investment opportunities in firms with low churn and high data modes [2][8] - The divergence in performance between hardware and software sectors is notable, with hardware companies like ASML reporting record earnings while software firms like SAP face investor disappointment due to slower growth in their cloud businesses [10][11]