What Lies Ahead for China ETFs in the New Year of the Horse?

Market Performance - The year of the Wood Snake was moderate for China stocks and ETFs, with iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) gaining about 9.4% over the past year, primarily in 2025 [1] - China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 18% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 16.4% gain [1] - The current year has seen a decline in the market due to the ongoing property market crisis, weak January manufacturing data, and subdued economic growth momentum [1] Economic Growth - China's economy grew 4.5% year over year in Q4 2025, down from 4.8% in Q3, marking the weakest rise in three years [3] - Full-year growth for 2025 reached 5%, aligning with Beijing's target, supported by a record-high trade surplus [3] - Forecasts for 2026 GDP growth vary, with Vanguard estimating around 4.5% and Goldman Sachs predicting 4.8% [4] Regulatory Environment - Chinese policymakers are shifting towards sustainable growth, introducing tighter enforcement measures to moderate market momentum and strengthen long-term investor confidence [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has intensified its crackdown on speculative activity following the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 10-year highs [6] AI Sector Growth - China aims to become a 90% AI economy by 2030, with significant growth in AI model usage projected [7] - Monthly token use in AI models in China is forecasted to range from 220-670Qa from 2025 to 2030, compared to 100-175Qa in the United States [8] Valuation and Equity Flows - The P/E ratio of FXI stands at 12.60X, significantly lower than the 28.77X of iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), indicating a cheaper valuation for Chinese equities [9] - Domestic equity flows are expected to rise, with Goldman Sachs estimating that Chinese equities could attract about $500 billion in fresh domestic capital this year [11] Consumption and Property Market Concerns - Domestic consumption remains subdued, with retail sales rising only 0.9% year on year in December 2025, missing market expectations [12] - The property sector is under pressure, with primary property sales expected to fall 10-14% in 2026 due to an oversupplied market [13] Overall Outlook - The outlook for Chinese stocks and ETFs is moderate-to-upbeat for 2026, supported by attractive valuations, improving equity flows, and AI-driven growth momentum [14] - However, long-term confidence in the Chinese market is contingent on regulatory stability, with potential volatility due to property sector stress and geopolitical risks [14]