张尧浠:假期市场交易清淡 金价维持震荡调整格局

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to geopolitical negotiation expectations and market closures, indicating short-term volatility and adjustment pressure [1][9]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $5042.31 per ounce, reaching a daily high before declining, with a low of $4965.63 and closing at $4993.60, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $76.68 and a decrease of $48.71, or 0.97% [3][11]. - The market anticipates continued downward pressure on gold prices, influenced by the recent recovery of the US dollar index [3][11]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the February New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index, with mixed market expectations [3][11]. - Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak on artificial intelligence and its impact on the job market, which may influence market sentiment [3][11]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding US-Iran negotiations and military movements, are contributing to uncertainty in gold demand [6][13]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations may also heighten geopolitical risk, potentially supporting gold prices [6][13]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook despite recent fluctuations, with support expected at the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [8][14]. - Weekly analysis shows initial support at the 5-week moving average of $4960, with further support at the 10-week moving average of $4720 [15]. - Daily charts suggest a potential return to the 30-day or 60-day moving average support levels, with resistance at the 5-day moving average [15][16]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading strategy includes monitoring support levels around $4925 or $4880 for gold, and resistance levels at $5000 or $5045 [16].