沃什或盼美联储缩表， 但现实掣肘恐难如愿

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, nominated to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, aims to reduce the balance sheet but faces significant challenges without major reforms to the financial system [1][6] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - The current mechanism for achieving monetary policy goals relies on banks holding substantial reserves, which limits the extent to which the Fed can reduce its asset size while maintaining market stability [1][6] - The Fed's total assets peaked at $9 trillion in spring 2022 due to large-scale purchases of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [2][7] - The Fed successfully reduced its overall asset size to $6.7 trillion from the 2022 peak through quantitative tightening (QT), which aims to withdraw excess liquidity from the financial system [3][9] Group 2: Challenges and Criticisms - Warsh criticizes the Fed's large balance sheet for distorting financial markets and favoring Wall Street over the real economy, advocating for further reductions to release liquidity to the broader economy [4][10] - The challenge lies in the need for banks to maintain high reserves; reducing liquidity could lead to uncontrolled federal funds rates, undermining the Fed's ability to meet inflation and employment targets [4][10] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan suggest that while rule adjustments could lower liquidity demands, they may increase financial stability risks [5][10]