IREN vs. MSTR: Which Bitcoin-Focused Stock is a Buy Right Now?

Core Insights - IREN Limited is transitioning from a pure-play crypto-mining company to an AI Cloud Service Provider, targeting $3.4 billion in annualized run-rate revenues by the end of 2026, primarily from its AI cloud business [3][19] - Strategy, the world's largest bitcoin treasury company, holds 713,502 bitcoins and achieved a bitcoin yield of 22.8% in 2025, translating to a gain of $8.9 billion [8][20] IREN Limited Overview - IREN reported $2.3 billion of annualized run-rate revenues under contract in Q2 2026, including a significant agreement with Microsoft [3] - The company secured $3.6 billion in GPU financing and received $1.9 billion in customer prepayments from Microsoft, covering approximately 95% of GPU-related capital spending [4] - IREN has over 4.5 gigawatts of secured power, with only 10% needed to reach its $3.4 billion ARR target, leaving substantial capacity for future growth [5] - Total revenues fell 23% in Q2 2026, primarily due to declining Bitcoin mining revenues as the company shifts focus [6][7] Strategy Overview - Strategy's bitcoin yield increased to 22.8% in 2025, supported by over $25 billion raised through equity offerings, which were primarily used to purchase Bitcoin [8][9] - The company continued to buy Bitcoin during price declines, acquiring 32,470 bitcoins for about $3.1 billion in Q4 2025 [10][11] - Strategy maintains controlled leverage with net leverage around 10-13% and a cash reserve of $2.25 billion, covering over 2.5 years of interest and dividend payments [11][12] Comparative Analysis - Earnings estimates for IREN have been revised downward, with a projected EPS of 38 cents for fiscal 2026, while Strategy's EPS estimate has been revised upward to $98.83 [13][15] - Over the past three months, IREN shares have decreased by 13.6%, while Strategy shares have lost 35.3% [16] - Strategy trades at a trailing P/B multiple of 0.87X, significantly lower than IREN's 5.59X, making it more attractive for value-seeking investors [18] Conclusion - IREN's long-term potential lies in its AI cloud services and strong power availability, but it faces short-term revenue pressures due to its shift away from Bitcoin mining [19] - Strategy's growth is driven by increasing Bitcoin holdings and strong capital access, making it a more stable investment option [20]