古尔斯比“放鸽”：若通胀回归2% 美联储今年仍有降息空间

Core Viewpoint - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that there is still room for further interest rate cuts this year if inflation continues to move towards the Fed's 2% target, but more data is needed to validate this policy direction [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Current service sector inflation remains at a high level, which is a key focus for policymakers [1] - If price increases related to tariffs are proven to be temporary rather than persistent inflationary pressures, it would leave room for monetary policy adjustments [1] - Goolsbee believes that if these impacts are confirmed as temporary and inflation is on a path back to 2%, multiple rate cuts could still occur in 2026, contingent on seeing relevant evidence [1] Group 2: Recent Policy Context - The Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged at last month's meeting after three consecutive rate cuts in the final months of 2025 to address signs of a weakening job market [1] - The decision to continue rate cuts will largely depend on the trajectory of inflation, with Goolsbee emphasizing the need for more evidence to confirm a steady return to the 2% inflation target [1] - The market perceives Goolsbee's recent statements as a relatively dovish policy signal, indicating that the Fed remains open to further easing of monetary policy, provided inflation no longer poses a sustained threat [1]