Cenovus Energy's Q4 Earnings on Deck: Should You Exit or Stay Invested?

Core Viewpoint - Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 19, 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 28 cents and revenues at $9.7 billion, indicating a 15.1% improvement from the previous year [1][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is 28 cents per share, reflecting an improvement from the year-ago figure [1]. - The expected revenue of $9.7 billion suggests a 15.1% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1]. - CVE has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 25.96% [2]. Market Conditions - The average WTI spot prices for October, November, and December 2025 were $60.89, $60.06, and $57.97 per barrel, respectively, indicating a decline from the previous year's prices [4][6]. - In comparison, the average WTI prices for the same months in 2024 were significantly higher at $71.99, $69.95, and $70.12 per barrel [6]. Stock Performance - CVE's stock has increased by 43.4% over the past year, outperforming the industry average growth of 39.8% [7]. - The company's current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio is 6.76, which is lower than the industry average of 7.03, suggesting that CVE is undervalued compared to peers like BP and Exxon Mobil [9]. Future Outlook - The EIA projects that crude prices will remain soft, with an expected average WTI price of $53.42 per barrel for 2026, down from $65.40 per barrel in 2025 [12]. - Increased capital spending on growth projects may pressure CVE's bottom line, especially in a softer crude pricing environment [13].