Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 13, 2026

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.04% on February 13, 2026, marking its lowest level since November 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.40%, the lowest since 2022 [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being a key focus [1] - Recent trends show that mortgage rates have declined, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.09%, one of the lowest since October 2024, despite the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cutting cycle initiated in September 2024 [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1965 highlights significant economic events, including the 1973 oil embargo that led to stagflation [1] - The 10-2 spread has been continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [1] Mortgage Rate Dynamics - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, typically leading to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the FFR cutting cycle [1] - The Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, reflecting a downward trend in mortgage rates [1] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Fed policy has significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - The relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 is noted, emphasizing the influence of Federal Reserve interventions on market dynamics [1]