Should You Buy Centerra Gold Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

Core Insights - Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 19, with earnings anticipated to show operational momentum supported by stable production and disciplined cost control amid favorable gold prices [1][6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has increased over the past 30 days, now projected at 34 cents per share, indicating a 100% year-over-year increase [2][6]. - The earnings estimate trend shows a significant upward revision, with a 30.77% increase for Q1 and an 81.82% increase for Q2 [3]. Operational Performance - CGAU's performance is driven by solid production at Mount Milligan and Oksut, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) in the mid-$1,600s range [5][6]. - The company faced a structurally higher cost base, with gold production costs around the mid-$1,300s per ounce, influenced by mine sequencing and inflationary pressures [7]. Market Position and Valuation - CGAU's stock has increased by 193.2% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 140% rise and the S&P 500's 13.9% increase [9]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 3.00, which is approximately 15% lower than the industry average of 3.52 [12]. Investment Thesis - Centerra Gold is positioned for steady production and improving cost visibility, with a balanced exposure to gold and copper, supported by stable grades and disciplined cost control [15]. - The company is expected to maintain positive momentum into the fourth quarter, bolstered by operational consistency and favorable pricing dynamics, reinforcing a buy recommendation [16].